A política do policiamento preditivo: pressupostos criminológicos, técnicas algorítmicas e estratégias punitivas
Palabras clave:
Policiamento preditivo, Previsão de crimes, Viés algorítmico, Punitivismo, Discriminação policialResumen
Os últimos anos presenciaram uma rápida expansão no uso de sistemas de predição de crimes por parte das instituições policiais. Desenvolvedores de softwares prometem que seus modelos matemáticos são capazes de antecipar tendências e dar mais precisão para estratégias preventivas de controle do crime, aumentando a eficiência e a transparência das polícias. No entanto, críticos afirmam que os mapas de crimes futuros reproduzem padrões discriminatórios encontrados nas bases de dados dos sistemas de justiça criminal, contribuindo para maior criminalização de populações marginalizadas. Neste artigo, debatemos as implicações dos sistemas preditivos para a prática policial e argumentamos que estes espelham o senso comum punitivo que ganhou espaço a partir dos anos 1980. Para tanto, traçamos um breve paralelo histórico entre o desenvolvimento do pensamento criminológico e as técnicas de análise estatística e visualização cartográfica adotadas pelas polícias. Aprofundamo-nos também em alguns dos modelos preditivos mais comuns no mercado de forma a ilustrar como estes adotam pressupostos da criminologia ambiental em seus mapas de risco. Por fim, abordamos as controvérsias em torno dos sistemas preditivos e sua autoridade epistemológica, demostrando que estes naturalizam e legitimam práticas repressivas.
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